Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo continues to be the preferred candidate among the Portuguese for the 2026 presidential elections, although he remains in a technical tie with Luís Marques Mendes. Furthermore, despite not having confirmed a potential candidacy, André Ventura emerges in third place in the race for Belém, surpassing António José Seguro, based on August data from the Intercampus barometer for Jornal de Negócios, Correio da Manhã, and CMTV.
The former Navy Chief of Staff secured 18.5% of the vote intentions, while the former president of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) was chosen by 16% of the respondents. This indicates that the distance between the candidates “remains very short, in a technical tie,” with a margin of error of 4%, highlighted the report.
Even though Luís Marques Mendes has dropped 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, Henrique Gouveia e Melo continues to ‘sink,’ scoring -2.1 percentage points.
Socialist António José Seguro also showed a decline in vote intentions (-2.8 percentage points, reaching 13.7%). He was even surpassed by the leader of Chega, who placed third with 14.1%. André Ventura experienced the most significant growth (3.5 percentage points), despite yet to clarify if he will join the candidacy.
Communist António Filipe decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 2%, while former Liberal Initiative (IL) leader João Cotrim de Figueiredo was the choice for 8.7% of respondents (+1.8 percentage points). Following the liberal is the MEP Catarina Martins, with 4.7%—1.1 percentage points more than the current Left Bloc (BE) coordinator, Mariana Mortágua, achieved in last month’s barometer.
The president of the Porto City Council, Rui Moreira, gathered 3.3% of the votes. It should be noted that the mayor is considering entering the race for Belém, but will not announce his decision “before September”.
It is also noteworthy that about a fifth of the respondents (19%) did not respond or did not know who they would vote for, a portion that became the largest in the data collection conducted between August 7 and 14.
And in case of a second round?
In a second round of voting, Gouveia e Melo would be elected against António José Seguro (with 42.2% of the votes) and André Ventura (with 56.6%). However, the victory would be less comfortable in a confrontation with Marques Mendes (with 39.8%).
Moreover, unlike last month, voters showed preference for Marques Mendes (41.9%) over António José Seguro (32.1%).
This Intercampus poll included 611 phone interviews, conducted between August 7 and 14. The response rate was 59.6%, with a margin of error of 4%, within a 95% confidence interval.
