The global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2026, according to projections released today by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), showing more optimism than the previous report.
“Global growth was more resilient than expected in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging market economies,” the report states.
The global economic growth forecast now stands at 3.2%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the June estimate, while the projection for 2026 remains unchanged.
The OECD highlights that industrial production and trade “were sustained by the anticipation of higher tariffs,” particularly from the United States.
Among the major economies, “strong investments related to Artificial Intelligence boosted results in the United States, and fiscal support in China overcame pressures from trade headwinds and a weak real estate market.”
Despite this trend, “recent business survey indicators suggest that output growth remained in most countries through August, but there are some signs of a potential slowing pace in high-frequency activity data.”
Thus, growth is expected to slow considerably in the second half of this year, “as anticipatory activity declines and higher effective tariffs on imports to the United States and China weigh on investment and trade growth.”
In the advanced G20 economies, aggregate economic growth is projected to moderate. The US is expected to grow by 1.8% this year and 1.5% next year, according to OECD projections, while estimates for Japan indicate growth of 1.1% this year and 0.5% in 2026.
