Titled ‘Electoral Abstention in Portugal: Mechanisms, Impacts, and Solutions’, this study by researchers João Cancela and José Santana Pereira involved a sample of 2,405 citizens through an opinion survey and focus groups with 26 voters known for abstaining or voting intermittently, conducted from late 2021 to 2022.
Political actors were contacted at three levels: the Assembly of the Republic, the European Parliament, and local authorities between 2024 and 2025.
Younger citizens (aged 18 to 30) with lower educational attainment are less likely to participate in elections, similar to those who have obtained Portuguese nationality, identify as part of ethnic minorities, or do not own a home.
Conversely, older, more educated voters from higher social classes, regular religious practitioners, those not belonging to an ethnic minority, and homeowners show a greater propensity to vote.
The researchers emphasize that these sociodemographic variables alone do not explain everything. A deeper analysis indicates that these groups (older, more educated, higher social classes, or more religious) tend to feel a stronger “civic duty” and “guilt” if they do not vote, which directly influences their likelihood of voting.
An additional trend found in the Portuguese electorate is that, unlike other countries, abstainers slightly lean more to the right compared to frequent voters.
Abstentionist or intermittent voters are more inclined to support tax reductions and prefer political representation by “ordinary citizens” instead of “professional politicians.”
“This pattern suggests that in Portugal, abstention may lead to a relative underrepresentation of more conservative segments of the electorate,” the study notes.
Researchers acknowledge that the context of the study, conducted between 2021 and 2022, may have influenced the greater abstention tendency from right-leaning voters: at that time, the government was led by the PS, with António Costa achieving an absolute majority, and parties such as Chega and Iniciativa Liberal were still relatively new.
“In this sense, there was a market opportunity that different parties might have had varying success in addressing over the past years,” remarked João Cancela.
However, regarding these voters’ positions on issues like the balance between the public and private sector in service provision, whether immigration benefits the country, or if the environment should be prioritized over economic growth, no significant differences were found between abstainers and those who tend to vote more.
Local and legislative elections show higher mobilization levels than presidential, especially when the head of state is seeking reelection, and European elections.
The study points to a “decline in electoral participation” trend since 1974, although researchers warn that official figures may exaggerate this perception due to a high registration rate explained by the “automatic registration of Portuguese citizens who do not actually reside in national territory.”
In more recent electoral acts, such as the 2024 legislative elections, there was a recorded increase in participation, potentially indicating “a possible reversal” of this trend.
