The prices of fuel are set to exhibit divergent trends at the beginning of next week: diesel is expected to become slightly more expensive, while gasoline prices are anticipated to decrease, according to forecasts released this Friday by the Automóvel Club de Portugal (ACP).
In practice, predictions indicate a rise of half a cent for diesel and a decrease of one cent for gasoline.
How is crude oil performing on international markets?
The price of Brent crude for November delivery ended Thursday on the London futures market up by 0.16%, reaching $69.42.
This North Sea crude, the benchmark in Europe, closed trading on the Intercontinental Exchange trading 11 cents above the $69.31 it recorded at the close on Wednesday.
This marks the third consecutive increase in the price, reaching its highest levels since early August.
Investors are beginning to factor in the possibility of a supply contraction due to export issues in Iraq’s Kurdistan, Venezuela, and interruptions in Russian supplies resulting from Ukrainian attacks.
IEA considers the projected increase in oil reserves unsustainable
This month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the anticipated increase in oil reserves is “unsustainable” after production hit a peak in August and OPEC decided on a new increase for October.
In its monthly market report, the IEA estimates that in the second half of the year, global reserves will grow by an average of 2.5 million barrels per day, due to supply significantly exceeding demand.
In July alone, reserves increased by 26.5 million barrels, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion, with an accumulation of 187 million additional barrels since the start of the year.
The situation risks worsening following the decision made last Sunday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+), unless there is a shift that alters the current market imbalances due to geopolitical tensions, trade policies, or new sanctions against Russia or Iran, according to the report’s authors.
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a new increase in crude oil production for October of 137,000 barrels per day, an increment which is nevertheless smaller than in previous months due to weakened global demand.
The IEA points out that a new record was set in August for crude oil demand, reaching 106.9 million barrels, and now estimates that for the whole year, the average will be 105.8 million barrels per day, which represents an increase of 2.7 million barrels per day compared to 2024, with 1.3 million barrels per day coming from OPEC+.
By 2026, it is estimated that there will be an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day, reaching 107.9 million barrels per day, with one million barrels per day sourced from additional OPEC+ productions.
