The prices of fuels are set to see different trends at the start of next week, as diesel is expected to become slightly more expensive, whereas gasoline prices are likely to decrease, according to forecasts released on Friday by the Automóvel Club de Portugal (ACP).
Specifically, forecasts indicate an increase of half a cent for diesel and a decrease of one cent for gasoline.
“If the predictions for the next week are confirmed, the average price of simple diesel will be 1.567 euros and that of simple gasoline 95 will be 1.703 euros,” the ACP states.
How is oil performing in international markets?
The price of Brent crude for November delivery ended Thursday in the London futures market with a rise of 0.16%, reaching $69.42.
North Sea crude, a benchmark in Europe, closed transactions on the Intercontinental Exchange trading 11 cents above the $69.31 closing price from Wednesday.
This marks the third consecutive rise in pricing, reaching its highest since early August.
Investors are beginning to consider the possibility of a supply contraction amid export issues in Iraqi Kurdistan, Venezuela, and supply interruptions from Russia due to Ukrainian attacks.
IEA considers projected oil reserves growth unsustainable
This month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) deemed the projected increase in oil reserves “unsustainable” after production hit a peak in August and OPEC decided on a further increase for October.
In its monthly market report, the IEA estimates that in the second half of the year, global reserves will grow by an average of 2.5 million barrels per day, as supply greatly outpaces demand.
In July alone, reserves increased by 26.5 million barrels, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion, accumulating an additional 187 million barrels since the start of the year.
The situation risks worsening with the decision last Sunday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) unless there is a shift to alter current market imbalances due to geopolitical tensions, trade policies, or new sanctions against Russia or Iran, according to the report’s authors.
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to a new increase in crude oil production for October of 137,000 barrels per day, a rise that is nevertheless smaller than previous months due to weakening global demand.
The IEA notes that August saw a new record in crude oil demand, with 106.9 million barrels, and now calculates that, for the year as a whole, it will average 105.8 million barrels per day, which is 2.7 million barrels per day more than in 2024, with 1.3 million barrels per day coming from OPEC+.
By 2026, it estimates an increase of another 2.1 million barrels per day, up to 107.9 million barrels per day, with one million barrels per day coming from additional OPEC+ production.
