The National Institute of Statistics (INE) released today the results of the Population Projections exercise for 2024 to 2100, estimating that the resident population will decrease from the current 10.7 million to 8.3 million people, according to a central projection scenario.
Researchers also developed alternative scenarios, such as a country without migration, which would result in a more pronounced reduction, with 4.7 million fewer residents.
In the unlikely scenario of no migratory flows, assuming the fertility and mortality trends of the central scenario, the resident population would be expected to be around 6.0 million people by 2100, according to the INE.
The decline in the resident population is not expected to happen immediately, as specialists estimate that residents will increase to 10.9 million by 2029, falling below 10 million in 2057 (9,976,259) and below nine million in 2079 (8,983,719).
According to projections, not all regions will experience these changes in the same way, with the north potentially losing its status as the most populous area to Greater Lisbon by 2080.
In this trend of population decline, the Greater Lisbon, Algarve, and Setúbal Peninsula areas will be exceptions, based on INE data, which also indicates fewer children, young people, and adults.
By 2100, there will be fewer than one million children and young people up to 15 years old (currently 1.4 million), according to the central scenario envisioned by researchers, who warn that in a worst-case scenario, the country could have only half a million young people.
These value differences are mainly related to the influence of migratory balances, fertility levels, and their combination, according to the study, which shows that without migration, there would be only 636,000 children and young people by 2100.
The working-age population (aged 15 to 64) will also gradually decrease from the current 6.8 million to 4.2 million by 2100, according to the central scenario, which indicates that there will be an increasing number of young people until 2050, after which a decline will occur, reaching 3.1 million by 2100.
“The aging index in Portugal will gradually increase until 2060, when it is expected to stabilize,” states the INE, explaining that with fewer people of working age and an increasing number of elderly, there will be a worsening of the old-age dependency ratio.
The old-age dependency ratio, calculated based on the number of people at least 65 years old to the number of people of working age, will rise from the current 39 elderly per 100 people of working age to 73 elderly by 2100.
Meanwhile, the youth dependency ratio (the ratio of the number of children and young people up to 14 years old to the number of people of working age) is expected to remain stable, increasing from the current 20 to 23 young people per 100 people of working age.
