Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo remains the favorite among Portuguese voters to succeed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for January 18. However, his support remains below 30% and he is in a technical tie with Luís Marques Mendes.
The latest poll released this Monday shows Gouveia e Melo with 26.9% of the vote intentions, while former Social Democratic Party leader Luís Marques Mendes follows with 20.3%—a 6.6 percentage point difference within the margin of error.
António José Seguro places third with 18.4%, followed by André Ventura with 13.9%.
Below 10% are João Cotrim de Figueiredo (9.1%), Rui Tavares (2.9%), António Filipe (2.5%), and Catarina Martins (1.9%).
What Would Happen in a Second Round?
In a potential runoff, Gouveia e Melo would prevail against principal opponents, though with varying margins. The poll indicates that, against Marques Mendes, he would secure 42% of the votes compared to 37%. Against António José Seguro, the advantage remains similar, with 44% to 37%.
Against André Ventura, the victory would be more decisive, at 63% to 15%. Ventura, in fact, is projected to lose in all simulated matchups.
Conversely, Marques Mendes would have a narrow victory over António José Seguro by just three percentage points in a potential second round.
Gouveia e Melo Is the Candidate with the Lowest Rejection Rate
The former Chief of the Navy remains the candidate with the strongest voter commitment, with 57% of respondents indicating they would vote for him, and he also shows the lowest rejection rate at 40%.
Marques Mendes follows with a 53% potential vote and 44% rejection, while António José Seguro has 51% and 45%, respectively.
The remaining candidates demonstrate high rejection rates, especially Joana Amaral Dias and Catarina Martins.
The poll analysis also reveals that Gouveia e Melo attracts voters from various political backgrounds, while Seguro retains 40% of the Socialist Party voters, and Marques Mendes secures 36% of the Democratic Alliance supporters. The largest number of undecided voters is found among the Socialist Party and Democratic Alliance supporters.
Second Poll in Two Days Indicates a Technical Tie between Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes
A poll conducted on Sunday also showed Henrique Gouveia e Melo maintaining a slight lead over Luís Marques Mendes and André Ventura.
The three candidates are separated by about two percentage points, a difference that falls within the margin of error of 3.5%, also constituting a technical tie.
In this scenario, António José Seguro drops to fourth, nearly tying with João Cotrim Figueiredo.
Gouveia e Melo would additionally win all the head-to-head matchups in a second round, though his contest against Marques Mendes would be the closest, with less than a one-point difference. André Ventura would lose in all scenarios.
