The head of the Climate and Climate Change Division at the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), Ricardo Deus, spoke regarding the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement on climate, adopted on December 12, 2015.
On that date, the 195 countries present at the 21st UN climate conference (COP21) in Paris adopted an agreement, the first universal and legally binding pact aimed at combating global warming and climate change.
The Agreement includes measures to limit the temperature rise to two degrees by the end of the century, preferably keeping it below 1.5ºC relative to the pre-industrial era, to avert catastrophic impacts of global warming caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly from fossil fuel burning.
Ricardo Deus noted that it was known from the start that fulfilling the targets of the agreement wouldn’t be easy, yet its existence was crucial. Today, one of those targets, the 1.5ºC temperature rise compared to the pre-industrial era, is a point of reference.
“The year 2024 was among the first when average temperature values exceeded 1.5ºC. Ten years after the Paris Agreement, that target has been surpassed,” he observed.
Deus mentioned that there are uncertainties about the exact warming value, which are related to calculation methods.
“What matters is that the trend, the signal, is constant [increasing temperature], and that’s what concerns us,” he highlighted.
For him, the Paris Agreement was “the possible path.”
“We are more aware of the issue, which is happening on a global scale,” he said, recalling the reports of deaths due to extreme climate events.
Despite this, he remained optimistic, citing as positive the development of renewable energies and reminding that a reduction in GHG emissions doesn’t reflect immediately on the climate, though he insisted that with emission reductions, the warming of air and oceans can also diminish.
Since climate change is already here, and because, in mainland Portugal, between 1991 and 2020, there was a temperature increase rate of 0.3ºC per decade (0.98ºC increase in the average temperature over that period), adaptation to climate changes is crucial, he warned.
The expert explained that the warming rate is not uniform across the planet and that Europe is one of the fastest-warming regions (2.3ºC compared to the pre-industrial era).
Ricardo Deus stated that climatic phenomena have always occurred, but today they are different from the past because these phenomena are enhanced by higher temperatures.
“With a warmer atmosphere and ocean, phenomena have gained another energy dimension,” and today they are different; for example, heat waves last longer.
And populations, he warned, are now more exposed to these phenomena and also more vulnerable: “We must be better adapted.” But, he added, the bright side is that people are also more aware of climate change and more interested.
With the steps being taken, especially in renewable energies, and the hope to reduce GHG emission rates, it is also crucial, the expert said, that the planet’s system works as expected in absorbing carbon dioxide.
However, in truth, people will have to get used to living with more heat, he considered.
