In November, the agency upgraded Portugal’s long-term credit rating to “A” and changed the outlook to “stable”.
“Scope has completed a monitoring review for the Portuguese Republic. The periodic review did not result in any rating action,” the agency indicated in a statement.
This decision was influenced by a “substantial reduction in public debt,” supported by a track record of prudent fiscal policy and improvements in economic resilience.
However, Scope pointed out several challenges, such as a “high, albeit decreasing,” stock of public debt, potential growth impacts from structural factors like an aging population that limits the workforce strength and, in the long run, “puts pressure on public expenditures,” as well as vulnerability to external shocks.
The agency also highlighted the growth of the Portuguese economy, bolstered by a gradual slowdown in inflation, which strengthened household purchasing power and increased private consumption.
Scope expects real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth of 2.1% this year and 1.9% in 2026.
“Economic activity will continue to benefit from lower inflation and more favorable financing conditions, which should support private investments. Moreover, the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan [PRR] will accelerate public investments until the end of next year,” it noted.
However, it warned that developments in global trade, like U.S. tariff policy, create greater uncertainty regarding Portugal’s economic growth prospects.
Although the direct impact is relatively low, the slowdown in economic growth among its trading partners, such as Spain, France, and Germany, could have adverse indirect effects, it added.
This year, both DBRS and S&P improved the sovereign debt rating in their reviews, which occurred before the political crisis, while Fitch maintained Portugal’s rating at ‘A-‘.
The rating is an assessment given by credit rating agencies, significantly impacting the financing of countries and companies, as it evaluates credit risk.
[Updated at 21:35]
