In the European Union, the spring macroeconomic forecasts indicate an inflation rate of 2.3% for this year and 1.9% in 2026, both of which have been revised downward from the previous November 2024 projections.
The European Commission anticipates that after an average inflation rate of 2.4% in 2024, overall inflation in the eurozone will reach the European Central Bank’s target of 2% by mid-2025, earlier than previously projected, with a forecast average of 1.7% in 2026.
In the EU, projections suggest that this indicator will continue to decline, reaching 1.9% in 2026.
Brussels warns that escalating trade tensions between the EU and the United States, linked with increased tariffs, could rekindle inflationary pressures.
The deceleration of the eurozone’s inflation rate, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, in 2025 is expected to be concentrated significantly over the next three quarters, according to Brussels.
By 2026, inflation is expected to exhibit a generally positive trend, with rates of 1.9% in the EU and 1.7% in the euro area.
The core inflation rate in the EU, excluding food and energy products, is projected to be 2.5% in 2025, unchanged from the autumn forecast, and 2.0% in 2026, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the autumn forecast.
[News updated at 10:49 AM]
