The International Energy Agency has slightly revised down its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025, projecting the smallest increase since 2009, excluding the exceptional year of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as announced today.
The IEA, an energy agency under the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), primarily comprising developed countries, anticipates an increase in oil demand of 700,000 barrels per day in 2025. This would represent “the lowest rate since 2009, excluding the COVID year of 2020,” according to the IEA’s July monthly report released today.
These projections are slightly lower than the IEA’s estimates in last month’s report, largely due to second-quarter deliveries falling short of expectations, with a year-on-year increase of only 550,000 barrels per day. This was driven by “particularly slow” consumption in emerging markets, half of the 1.1 million barrels per day growth recorded in the first quarter.
For the entire year, global oil consumption is expected to reach 103.7 million barrels per day, down from the 103.8 million barrels per day estimated in the June report.
“In recent months, there has been a significant slowdown in oil demand, notably in developing countries,” states the IEA.
“While it may be premature to attribute this slower growth to the negative impact of tariffs (…) on the real economy, the largest quarterly contractions occurred in countries targeted by trade turbulence,” notably China, Japan, and Mexico, the agency says, referring to the trade war conducted by U.S. President Donald Trump through customs surcharges.
Conversely, Europe and non-Asian emerging markets have so far proven to be “more resilient.”
For 2026, the agency predicts that global oil consumption will increase by 720,000 barrels per day, reaching a total of 104.4 million barrels per day, slightly below the previous month’s forecast of 104.5 million barrels per day.
Referring to an “apparently oversupplied market,” the IEA estimates that global oil supply will increase by an average of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching 105.1 million barrels per day, and by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 106.4 million barrels per day. This growth will be primarily driven by countries that are not members of the expanded organization of oil-exporting countries OPEC+.
