Although still leading the Portuguese voting intentions for the 2026 presidential elections, Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo is in a “near technical tie” with Luís Marques Mendes and António José Seguro in the latest Intercampus poll for Correio da Manhã, CMTV, and Jornal de Negócios.
The former Navy Chief of Staff dropped 6.7 percentage points from the June poll, where he held 27.3% of the voting intentions. In July, 20.6% of Portuguese respondents admitted they would vote for Henrique Gouveia e Melo. It’s worth noting that, back in March, the admiral was the favored candidate with 35.6% of the voting intentions.
Luís Marques Mendes also saw a decrease from June to July, registering 1.3 percentage points less in voting intentions. In June, he was the choice of 18.5% of Portuguese people, while this month only 17.2% would bet on the social democrat.
António José Seguro, on the other hand, jumped from 11% in June to 16.5%, marking an increase of 5.5 percentage points. Negócios highlighted that the socialist saw the biggest rise in voting intentions in July, after registering less than 5% when announcing his candidacy for the presidency.
Since the margin of error for this poll is 4%, the three candidates are within a tenth of a technical tie. This marks the most competitive scenario since studies on voting intentions for presidential elections began.
André Ventura ranks fourth, with 10.6% of voting intentions, reflecting a 2.2 percentage point increase from June, when he was the choice of 8.4% of respondents. It should be recalled that the Chega leader considered running for presidency but also admitted he might step back, depending on the party’s results in the snap legislative elections.
Despite not having announced yet, António Sampaio da Nóvoa garnered 4.1% of voting intentions in July, 0.5 percentage points more than in the previous month.
Communist António Filipe debuted in the polls with 3.8% of voting intentions, while the Left Bloc (BE) coordinator, Mariana Mortágua, is the choice of 3.6% of Portuguese respondents. However, the bloc leader has not yet expressed any intention to join the race.
The percentage of undecided voters also decreased, dropping from 23.2% to 16.8% in July.
What about a second round?
There are several technical tie scenarios in a possible second round. In a head-to-head between Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes, the admiral gains 40.4% of the votes, while the social democrat receives 39.6%. Against Seguro, the former Navy Chief of Staff gathers 41.6% of the votes, whereas the socialist secures 38.1%.
A technical tie does not occur only in a second round with André Ventura. In this case, Gouveia e Melo dominates with 63.4% of the votes, and the Chega leader is limited to 19.1%.
In a contest between Marques Mendes and Seguro, there is also a technical tie: the social democrat has 39.6% of the voting intentions, while the socialist is the choice of 38% of Portuguese people.
This Intercampus poll included 606 telephone interviews, conducted between July 11 and 18. The response rate was 58.9%, with a margin of error of 4% and a confidence interval of 95%.
