Titled ‘Electoral Abstention in Portugal: Mechanisms, Impacts, and Solutions’, a study authored by researchers João Cancela and José Santana Pereira, analyzed a sample of 2,405 citizens through a survey and focus groups with 26 voters who typically abstain or vote intermittently, conducted between late 2021 and 2022.
Political figures from three areas were also contacted: the Assembly of the Republic, the European Parliament, and local mayors, between 2024 and 2025.
Younger citizens (between 18 and 30 years) and those with lower educational attainment tend to participate less in elections, as do citizens who have acquired Portuguese nationality, identify as belonging to ethnic minorities, or are not homeowners.
Conversely, older voters, those with higher education, from higher social classes, and even those with regular religious practice, who do not belong to an ethnic minority and live in their own homes, show a greater propensity to vote.
The researchers emphasize that these isolated sociodemographic variables do not explain everything: in a deeper analysis, the study highlights that these groups (older, more educated, from higher social classes, or even more religious) tend to have a greater sense of “civic duty” and strong “guilt” when they do not exercise their right to vote, which is one of the main factors directly influencing turnout at the polls.
Another trend found in the Portuguese electorate is noteworthy: “Unlike what is observed in other countries, abstentionists tend to position themselves slightly more to the right than frequent voters.”
Abstentionist or “intermittent voters” are more favorable to tax cuts and the idea that political representation should be carried out by “ordinary citizens” instead of “professional politicians.”
“This pattern suggests that in Portugal, abstention may imply a relative under-representation of more conservative segments of the electorate,” the text states.
The researchers acknowledge that the context in which the study was conducted, between 2021 and 2022, may have influenced the greater tendency for right-wing voter abstention: at that time, the government was led by the PS, with António Costa securing an absolute majority, and parties like Chega and Iniciativa Liberal were still relatively new.
“In that sense, there was a market opportunity that different parties may have had varying success in addressing in recent years,” noted João Cancela.
Nonetheless, regarding these voters’ positions on issues such as “what the balance between the public and private sectors in providing services should be, whether immigration is beneficial for the country, or whether the environment should be prioritized over economic growth,” no significant differences were found between abstentionists and those more inclined to vote.
Municipal and legislative elections register higher levels of mobilization than presidential elections, “especially when the head of state is running for re-election,” and European elections.
The study indicates a trend of “decline in electoral participation” since 1974, although the researchers caution that official figures may exaggerate the perception of this phenomenon’s magnitude, primarily due to high registration explained by the “automatic registration of Portuguese citizens who do not actually reside in the national territory.”
In more recent elections, such as the 2024 legislative ones, there was a recorded increase in participation, which may indicate “a possible reversal” of this phenomenon.
