In comments to Lusa, researcher Catarina Reis Oliveira from ISCSP highlighted that immigration is likely to become a campaign topic again, noting a lack of consensus between center-left and center-right parties on integration policies. João Carvalho from Iscte agrees, recalling that since 2007, immigration had not been a topic of electoral debate.
Pedro Góis, the current scientific director of the Migration Observatory from the University of Coimbra, emphasized the country’s need for data to understand immigration phenomena and to make informed decisions. He expressed concerns that electoral campaigns may be “based on empty rhetoric that everyone knows is not true.”
The discussion is centered around concerns linking immigrants to rising crime rates or increased housing prices.
Pedro Góis noted that the current government’s policies have not decreased immigration flow but have shifted its origins. In June of the previous year, the PSD/CDS government abolished the procedure allowing foreigners with tourist visas to regularize their status in the country, provided they had a residence and paid taxes.
“The elimination of this procedure did not end immigration. Instead, it made entry more difficult for some and easier for others,” Pedro Góis remarked, referencing the mobility partnership with CPLP countries.
Therefore, migration must remain a topic in the political agenda, and it is important for each party to present their programs so voters can decide, added Pedro Góis.
João Carvalho highlighted the unprecedented and rapid process that led to the abolition of the procedure, saying, “It was unexpected: approved in the afternoon and enacted by the evening.”
The immigration topic in the campaign will largely depend on the PSD and whether it chooses to follow Chega’s narrative, he considered.
“We already know that Chega will continue to politicize this issue, alongside anti-elitism and anti-corruption rhetoric,” thus the question remains about PSD’s strategy.
“The PSD has attempted to neutralize Chega by co-opting the immigration issue, yet I doubt this will be electorally successful,” João Carvalho mentioned, attributing Chega’s rise to the previous year’s support from abstainers.
“Only 6% of the Portuguese cited immigration as a major concern,” he added, suggesting Chega’s support is more driven by anti-elitism, in line with other populist movements.
João Carvalho advocates for a “regime pact regarding the future of immigration” in Portugal, cautioning that adopting Chega’s ideas would polarize immigration as a major political divide.
“Focusing the debate on immigration is easier than addressing issues within Portugal’s liberal democracy, such as corruption or long-standing structural problems,” he further explained.
Catarina Reis Oliveira observed that the emergence of migrations as a political issue began with “institutional changes,” referencing the dissolution of the Foreigners and Borders Service (SEF) and the High Commission for Migrations (ACM), and the establishment of the Agency for Integration, Migrations, and Asylum.
“The main parties no longer agree,” she noted, emphasizing that since 2019, Portugal has had a political party campaigning against immigration for the first time, pointing to the inaugural anti-immigration protests in the country.
As a result, “this polarization has transcended political speeches” with a “misleading association of immigration with insecurity or crime.”
Furthermore, while AIMA’s name includes ‘integration’, it has mostly focused on regularization, whereas integration involves more than just residency permits, she stressed.
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