“The combined effects of falling global oil prices and the potential impact of reciprocal US tariffs of 32% will reduce revenues and restrict GDP growth to 3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026,” according to the AfDB, below the bank’s “baseline” of 4%.
Inflation is expected to “remain high, at 23.4%, in 2025, driven by food prices and currency depreciation, but could decrease to 17.7% in 2026,” added the financial institution in the Angola chapter of the African Economic Outlook (AEO) report for 2025.
The AEO 2025 was published today during the annual AfDB meetings held in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, focusing on the continent’s resource mobilization to free it from external dependency.
In 2024, Angola’s real GDP grew by 4.4%, up from 1.1% in 2023, “thanks to robust growth in the non-oil sector,” noted the AfDB, while inflation remained high, at 28.2%.
According to the bank, Angola’s fiscal deficit is expected to increase from 1.7% of GDP in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026, “reflecting increased spending to revitalize the economy and ahead of the 2027 elections.”
Public debt is expected to increase to 63.9% of GDP in 2025 but “remains sustainable from a future perspective and below the 70% limit set by the IMF.”
The decline in oil production and prices will weigh on exports, reducing the current account surplus to less than 3% of GDP in 2025-26.
“Instability in oil production and prices, setbacks in fuel subsidy reforms, global trade tensions, and climate change may adversely affect growth, making economic diversification essential to mitigate downside risks,” recommended the AfDB.
*** The Lusa agency traveled at the invitation of the AfDB ***
