The price of olive oil, a staple in Portuguese households, has placed significant pressure on supermarket bills. After reaching historical highs in 2024, it has been on a gradual decline, according to DECO PROTeste.
“Portugal ranks among the top producers and consumers of olive oil per capita globally. The Portuguese use it daily in cooking, which led to a direct impact on families due to rising olive oil prices starting in 2022, prompting them to limit consumption,” explained the consumer protection organization.
However, “after more than two years of climbing to unprecedented levels, the price of extra virgin olive oil is finally decreasing.”
How much does a bottle of extra virgin olive oil cost?
According to the consumer protection organization’s analysis from 2022, the “gradual price increase of olive oil was driven by several factors“, including “drought,” which reduced olive production in the Mediterranean basin (40% less in Portugal in 2022), and the “rise in inflation and the costs of energy, transport, and fertilizers,” primarily due to the onset of the war in Ukraine.
DECO PROTeste reported the average price evolution for a 0.75-liter bottle of extra virgin olive oil in the first week of January:
- 2022: 4.46 euros;
- 2023: 5.92 euros;
- 2024: 11.06 euros;
- 2025: 9.52 euros.
Examining the data, “olive oil prices have gradually risen since early 2022,” with a “75-centiliter bottle of extra virgin olive oil costing, on average, 4.46 euros on January 5 of that year.”
“One year later, the same bottle cost on average 5.92 euros, marking an increase of 32.67 percent. By January 3, 2024, the price had reached 11.06 euros, an increase of 5.14 euros (+86.75%) compared to the previous year. On April 3, it hit a historic record of 12 euros, marking the period when olive oil price was most burdensome for the Portuguese,” noted the organization.
Subsequently, “although prices fell in the following months, in the first week of 2025, a bottle of olive oil cost 9.52 euros, which is 5.06 euros more than at the beginning of 2022.”
Will the price of olive oil decrease? What is the outlook?
DECO PROTeste highlighted that after skyrocketing to historical highs over the past two years, there is now a “trend of downward pricing.”
“According to 2024 Agricultural Statistics from INE, national olive oil production reached 180,000 tons in 2024, marking the second-highest output on record. There were expectations of increased production in 2025 in Portugal during the first half of the year, but these have been tempered due to consecutive months of high temperatures,” the organization stated.
“In neighboring Spain, the summer was extraordinarily hot and dry,” leading to the conclusion that it is uncertain if prices will stabilize. However, a return to pre-2022 levels is unlikely.
