Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle may move towards the mainland from Saturday afternoon, after passing through the Azores archipelago, the Portuguese Sea and Atmosphere Institute (IPMA) indicated today.
In a statement from the IPMA, based on the forecast provided by the ECMWF model (European Centre), used in the institute’s forecasts, “if this situation occurs, this tropical cyclone will approach the Portuguese coast as a post-tropical depression from the afternoon of September 27.”
The cyclone was located today in the Atlantic Ocean. In a statement, the Azores Meteorological Forecast and Surveillance Center of the IPMA reported that at 09:00 local time (10:00 in Lisbon) Gabrielle was “approximately 2,640 kilometers west-southwest of the Western Group of the Azores,” moving northeast.
According to the data provided by the European Centre model, periods of rain are expected from Saturday afternoon on the mainland “and an increase in wind intensity in highlands and the west coast, leading to increased maritime disturbance,” stated the IPMA.
However, the institute noted that “given the geographic and temporal distance where the cyclone is still located, there remains some uncertainty regarding its path and respective intensity,” which could lead to changes in the currently available forecast.
The IPMA is expected to update the information on Wednesday afternoon.
According to the Azores surveillance center, Gabrielle is currently classified as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale (a scale from 1 to 5, where 5 is the most severe category).
Nevertheless, it is expected that “in the coming days, as it approaches the Azores archipelago, it will lose intensity, reaching the region with tropical storm force winds or Category 1 hurricane,” noted meteorologist Rita Mota.
The latest forecast update indicates that the cyclone’s center should pass between the Western (Flores and Corvo) and Central (Terceira, Graciosa, São Jorge, Pico, and Faial) groups on Friday.
Thus, from Friday morning, precipitation should occur on all islands, potentially being strong in the Western and Central groups.
The wind is expected to intensify, with gusts possibly varying between 130 and 150 kilometers per hour (from the southwest, turning to the northwest).
Regarding maritime agitation, it is also expected to increase, with waves of eight to 10 meters in significant height and a maximum height in the order of 14 to 18 meters (from the southwest, changing to the northwest), according to the IPMA.
