Data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) indicates that in 2025, agricultural income per annual work unit (AWU) is expected to decline by 10.7% in real terms, following two years of significant growth (17.3% in 2023 and 15.2% in 2024).
“This trend is strongly influenced by the nominal reduction in ‘other production subsidies’ (-34.3%), reverting to usual levels after a large payout of these aids in 2024,” it explains.
Conversely, the Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated to show a nominal increase (+1.2%), reflecting a decrease in production (-0.4%) that is less pronounced than the reduction in intermediate consumption (-1.4%).
However, in real terms (excluding price effects), the GVA is projected to decline by 5.4%, with the agricultural sector’s GVA maintaining its relative weight in the national GVA at around 1.9%.
This year, intermediate consumption is expected to decrease by 1.4% nominally, indicating a slight volume increase (+0.1%) and a price decrease (-1.4%), with the INE highlighting negative nominal variations in energy (-2.6%), fertilizers and soil correctives (-0.9%), and animal feed (-4.5%).
According to the statistical institute, the production price index (101.7) is expected to exceed that of intermediate consumption (98.6), reversing the situation observed in 2024 and “presenting a more favorable scenario for agricultural activity.”
This year, the statistical institute estimates a “significant decrease” of 33.1% in total aids, classified as subsidies paid to the agricultural producer, returning to the levels of 2022 and previous years, after a “pronounced decrease” in 2023 (-32.2%) and a “sharp increase” in 2024 (+95.3%).
The INE specifically forecasts declines in ‘product subsidies’ (-28.1%) and ‘other production subsidies’ (-34.3%).
The note states that “as is common during the transition between community frameworks, after the initial reduction in 2023, aids intensified in 2024 and returned to usual levels in 2025.”
In an international comparison, the INE notes that between the trienniums 2005-2007 and 2022-2024, the relative importance of the agricultural sector’s GVA in the national GVA decreased in most Member States, with agriculture’s role in the Portuguese economy being higher than the observed in the EU27 (1.9% versus 1.5% during the 2022-2024 triennium), but lower than countries like Italy, Spain, and Greece.
Between the trienniums of 2005-2007 and 2022-2024, Portugal’s agricultural income increased by 72.3%, a growth below the EU27 average (+82.2%), but still the 10th largest increase among Member States.
