The study titled “Automation and Artificial Intelligence in the Portuguese Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities” classifies 120 professions in Portugal based on their exposure to technological changes associated with artificial intelligence and automation, considering potential disruptive and transformative effects.
The study indicates that “rising professions,” which could benefit from digitalization and AI, represent 22.5% of employment in Portugal, making it the second smallest category.
Conversely, 12.9% of professions fall into the “machine terrain” category, which might also enjoy productivity gains through AI. This analysis is based on data from the Ministry of Labor, Solidarity, and Social Security’s Personnel Charts for 2021, encompassing 3.2 million workers, predominantly from the private sector.
This implies that the “vast majority of employment is not positioned to enjoy the positive effects that may arise from the complementarity of artificial intelligence with human labor,” concludes the study led by Rui Baptista, a professor at the Instituto Superior Técnico.
In this context, the study notes that over a third of workers (35.7%) are in professions that are minimally exposed to automation but also have low transformation potential, categorized as in the “human terrain.”
Still, nearly three in ten (28.8%) are categorized as “collapse professions,” potentially facing “serious risks” of disappearing due to their vulnerability to technological disruption.
This group is indeed the second largest, following the “human terrain” professions. Notably, the largest profession in Portugal, labeled as “other sales-related workers,” fell into this category, accounting for 5.3% of employment in 2021.
Also among the top 10 largest professions are two other “collapse professions”: “other elementary occupations” with an employment share of 3.1%, and “waiters and bartenders” with a 2.5% share.
Moreover, according to this policy paper, part of a broader study yet to be released, none of the 10 largest professions in Portugal are classified as a “rising profession.”
Additionally, workers in “collapse professions” earn, on average, lower incomes and have fewer qualifications, whereas those in “rising professions” tend to have “higher work incomes, due to their ‘advanced requirements regarding digital skills,’ as well as a higher number of qualifications: 63.4% have at least a college degree, compared to only 5.4% in collapse professions.
The study’s authors warn that workers in “collapse professions” are in a “more vulnerable position in case of unemployment or precarious employment” and call for “urgent solutions for the likely restructuring or disappearance of their jobs.”
“Therefore, policymakers should promptly prepare for a scenario of additional pressure on the social security system and contemplate the implementation of active policies aimed at retraining workers and the unemployed, as well as reintegrating the unemployed into the labor market,” it states.
In this context, the authors present seven public policy recommendations, emphasizing that “central priority” should be given to promoting workforce adaptability “through retraining programs focused on workers in professions classified as ‘collapse professions,’ as well as strengthening social protection mechanisms.
Simultaneously, they assert the urgency of revising educational curricula to incorporate digital literacy, mastery of AI tools, and skills related to analysis and communication. They argue that “the adoption of emerging technologies should be encouraged through financial incentives and technical support to businesses,” specifically mentioning “grants, tax benefits, and specialized technical support.”
