Despite the European Central Bank’s decision four days ago to maintain interest rates at 2%, following eight reductions of 0.25 percentage points, forecasts suggest an additional cut in the upcoming meeting.
Regularly conducted surveys by the ECB among analysts, published today, indicate a consensus for a 0.25-point reduction during the meeting scheduled for September 10 and 11.
Analysts also believe that the ECB Governing Council will keep interest rates at 1.75% until the first quarter of 2027, at which point it is anticipated that the monetary authority of the eurozone will raise them to 2%.
This level is expected to remain until at least the first quarter of 2028, when experts foresee an increase of 25 basis points to 2.25%, a level anticipated to last until the end of 2028.
In the long term, monetary policy experts see interest rates stabilizing around 2%.
Last week, the ECB kept the interest rate for bank deposits at 2%, following eight 0.25-point reductions since June 2024, successfully bringing eurozone inflation down to 2%.
The average forecast among analysts consulted by the ECB suggests inflation will remain at 2% in the third quarter and dip to 1.9% in the fourth quarter, decreasing to 1.7% between January and March 2026.
In the subsequent quarters, inflation is expected to hover around 1.9%, rising back to 2% in the first quarter of 2027, and maintaining that level thereafter.
Furthermore, analysts expect the eurozone to grow by just 0.1% and 0.2% in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, respectively, before climbing to 0.3% in the first quarter of 2026, remaining at that level until the third quarter when the region’s GDP will increase by another tenth of a percentage point.
From the first quarter of 2027, growth is expected to stabilize at 0.3%.
In the long term, analysts predict an increase in the eurozone GDP of about 1.2%.
