“Regarding our economic prospects for 2026 and the medium term, we anticipate a gradual recovery of economic activity, supported by the implementation of structuring projects in strategic areas and the improvement of internal production conditions,” stated the governor of the central bank.
Speaking at the opening of the 50th advisory council of the Bank of Mozambique, taking place in the city of Pemba, Cabo Delgado, Zandamela added the forecast that the balance of international reserves will remain “at comfortable levels” during the year 2026.
“Inflation projections indicate the maintenance of single-digit levels in the short and medium term. However, significant challenges persist. Domestically, there is a continuous worsening of fiscal risk, a challenging business environment, climatic shocks, and the need for deep structural reforms,” warned the governor.
He added that “in the external environment,” it is important to highlight “the slowdown in global economic activity, persistent inflation, and high levels of uncertainty.”
The Mozambican economy recorded year-on-year contractions in the last quarter of 2024 (-4.9%), in the first quarter of 2025 (-3.9%), and the second quarter (-0.9%), affected by the social unrest that followed the general elections on October 9.
The Mozambican government forecasts an economic growth of 3.2% in 2026, according to the budget proposal submitted to parliament, raising the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 1.665 trillion meticais (22.3 billion euros).
According to the Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE) proposal for 2026, this economic growth follows the initially forecast 2.9% for this year and 2.2% in 2024, both cases influenced by the consequences of post-electoral unrest after last October, following the 5% in 2023.
For this year, the government forecasts a nominal GDP of 1.544 trillion meticais (20.7 billion euros), while in 2024 it was 1.453 trillion meticais (19.5 billion euros).
Still within the macroeconomic assumptions of the PESOE for 2026, the government forecasts an annual inflation rate of 3.7%, against 7% expected for this year, 3.2% in 2024, and 7.1% in 2023, with Net International Reserves covering 4.4 months of estimated import needs in the next year, compared to 4.7 months this year and five months in 2024.
The budget proposal indicates the goal of increasing exports from 8.231 billion dollars (7.063 billion euros) this year to 8.436 billion dollars (7.239 billion euros) in 2026, below the volume of imports, which are expected to grow in the same period from 9.254 billion dollars (7.940 billion euros) to 9.549 billion dollars (8.194 billion euros).
