In its October Economic Bulletin, the central bank forecasts a GDP growth of 1.9% in 2025 compared to 2024, an increase from the previous June estimate of 1.6%. However, this figure remains below the 2.3% projection made in March of this year by the BdP.
For the next two years, the central bank keeps its projections unchanged. In 2026, it expects growth to be 2.2%, and in 2027, it anticipates a progression of 1.7%, matching the pace projected in the previous bulletin.
“The revision of 0.3 percentage points in GDP growth for 2025 reflects the incorporation of the latest national accounts data and a higher projected growth for the second semester,” explains the central bank, noting that the publication of annual national accounts results “revealed a higher GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 (0.5 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively).”
The revisions, as detailed, “reflect a greater contribution from domestic demand,” due to “upward revisions in contributions from private consumption, public consumption, and investment” in 2023 and “a greater contribution from investment” in 2024.
Simultaneously, “the chain variation of GDP in the first quarter was also revised upwards by the INE, and the second quarter was above the projected figure in the June Economic Bulletin (0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively),” states the BdP.
