The governor of the Bank of Spain has indicated that a downward revision of economic growth forecasts may be necessary. In a statement to TVE, José Luis Escrivá highlighted concerns over the potential negative effects of new trade tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, describing the current situation as marked by significant economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
While refraining from speaking of a recession, the governor emphasized the complexity and uncertain nature of the economic outlook. He noted that recent forecasts had projected robust growth for the Spanish economy, but these may need to be adjusted downward, although he did not specify by how much.
Escrivá stressed the unpredictability of the situation, stating, “We know that what’s happening could have very negative effects on economic activity globally, in a highly asymmetrical manner. However, we still lack precise elements to determine how and when these impacts will materialize.”
The latest projections from the Bank of Spain, released in March, indicated an anticipated 2.7% growth in Spain’s GDP for this year, with a 1.9% increase expected in 2026. Nevertheless, the institution had already warned of geopolitical uncertainties at that time.
The bank’s quarterly economic forecast report highlighted concerns over U.S. trade policy and potential impacts on various countries, as well as discussions within the European Union regarding the relaxation of fiscal rules to significantly boost public defense spending.
Historical evidence, the bank noted, suggests that economic growth tends to falter under such scenarios.
Spain’s economy experienced a 3.2% growth last year, surpassing the previous year’s increase by five-tenths, according to the Spanish National Institute of Statistics.
President Donald Trump recently announced heightened tariffs on imports to the United States from 184 countries and territories, adding to the prevailing economic uncertainty.
