“The scenario unfortunately is not very positive,” stated CNI’s Director of Economy, Mário Sérgio, regarding 2026 during a press conference.
The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised to 2.5%, driven largely by agribusiness.
The main entity representing the Brazilian industrial sector anticipates a 1.9% increase in the services sector in 2026. The significant agribusiness sector is expected to remain nearly unchanged compared to 2025, while the industry sector is projected to grow modestly by 1.1%.
According to CNI, the primary obstacles to growth will include a weakened labor market and an annual interest rate of 15% with no projected decrease.
Brazilian exports are expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, reaching 355.5 billion dollars (approximately 305.6 billion euros), despite external pressures such as U.S. tariffs, a possible economic slowdown in Argentina, a smaller agricultural harvest, and reduced oil demand.
Imports are anticipated to decline by 1.4% to 248.7 billion euros, despite increased consumer goods purchases. This is expected to result in a trade surplus of around 56.9 billion euros, roughly 17% higher than in 2025.
Regarding Brazil’s general elections in 2026, CNI President Antonio Ricardo Alvarez Alban remarked that “any electoral cycle is concerning for the industry.”
The Brazilian official noted another “tendency of polarization” in these elections.
