“For 2026, the prospects of ACIP [Association of Bakery, Confectionery, and Similar Industries] are cautiously optimistic. Stability in flour, energy, and logistics markets internationally creates favorable conditions for a year without major fluctuations,” stated the association’s president, Deborah Barbosa, in a response.
However, ACIP anticipates “a slight increase” in the price of bread and pastries due to the impacts of labor revisions and rising costs of eggs, nuts, and cardboard.
This could further be impacted by the potential withdrawal of state support for fuel, she warned.
According to data from Deco – Portuguese Association for Consumer Protection, on January 1, 2025, half a dozen eggs cost 1.61 euros, but by November 19, the same box was priced at 2.12 euros, marking an increase of 31.68%.
The price of eggs has remained stable since October 22, when it peaked at 2.12 euros. Conversely, the lowest price was at the start of the year (1.61 euros) and remained until the 29th of the same month.
According to ACIP, the sector should focus on “consolidation, productive efficiency, and strengthening differentiation,” factors that ACIP considers essential to achieve sustainable margins and meet customer expectations.
Deborah Barbosa also mentioned that preliminary data for the current year show alignment of pastry and bakery prices with inflation, following years of high volatility in costs and low consumption.
“The sector shows moderate evolution, with contained but positive growth, supported by the normalization of raw material prices and more predictable consumer behavior. Although there are still many pressures on labor and essential services, 2025 demonstrates an environment of greater operational balance,” she stated.
