After pessimistic projections in the spring released last May, following the U.S. announcements of heavy tariffs on the EU earlier this year, the European Commission now publishes its autumn forecasts, with indicators for all member states and other major economies.
Following commitments from Brussels and Washington, an understanding was reached over the summer that eased some of these tensions, yet uncertainties remain concerning global trade, financial market instability, and persistent inflation, which raise concerns of economic slowdown in the eurozone and the EU bloc.
The European Commission will address these impacts in its autumn forecasts.
Last Wednesday, European Commissioner for the Economy Valdis Dombrovskis pointed out the “considerable headwinds” affecting eurozone economic growth and warned that the single currency nations “cannot be complacent” with their finances.
Nevertheless, Dombrovskis stated that “the euro area economy is performing stronger in 2025 than previously expected and continues to generate GDP growth.”
It is evident that European forecasts have been marked by consecutive downward revisions, with the European Commission becoming increasingly cautious regarding economic growth.
The autumn economic forecasts arise in a context of significant uncertainty, both external and internal, for EU economies.
The main constraining factors include persistent underlying inflation and the European Central Bank’s restrictive monetary policy, which continues to impact investment and private consumption.
The evolution of energy prices—heavily dependent on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine—is another critical element, alongside global trade concerns, the slowdown in the German economy, and budgetary tensions in various eurozone countries such as France.
Regarding Portugal, the Government highlighted last Wednesday the “good moment” of the Portuguese economy, which it expects to be reflected in the European Commission’s forecasts, citing a “quite robust fiscal performance” with a surplus this year and next.
In the previous economic forecasts, the spring ones released in May, the European Commission estimated that Portugal will have a budget surplus of 0.1% of GDP this year, which will turn into a deficit of 0.6% in 2026.
At the same time, the institution downgraded its growth forecasts for the Portuguese economy this year to 1.8%, while remaining confident that GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2026.
Regarding the eurozone, the European Commission significantly revised downwards the economic growth for this year from 1.3% to 0.9%, estimating that GDP will be affected by U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty.
