The figures were worse than the forecasts of economists consulted by the financial news agency Bloomberg, who had predicted a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year.
Conversely, imports rose 1% annually in October, according to customs authorities, also below analysts’ expectations, who anticipated a 3.2% increase.
October was marked by a new wave of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, following China’s announcement at the beginning of the month of new restrictions on the export of strategic rare earth elements.
In retaliation, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese products.
However, a summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on October 30 in South Korea, resulted in reciprocal measures to ease tensions.
In October, trade between China and the United States, denominated in yuan, was 24.5% lower than the previous year. Chinese exports fell by 25% year-on-year, while imports dropped by 22.6%.
From January to October, trade between the two largest economies was 15.9% lower than during the same period last year, with a more significant impact on Chinese exports (down 17.1%) than imports (down 11.9%).
Nonetheless, Chinese exports of rare earths surged 75% between September and October, ending three consecutive months of declines due to Beijing’s restrictions on the sale of these minerals, which are essential to sectors like defense and automotive.
According to official data, the volume of rare earths sold by the Asian country to the rest of the world increased by 74.8% in October compared to September, while the annual increase was 47.1%.
Meanwhile, the price at which they were sold followed a different trend: prices doubled between September and October, while compared to October 2014, they more than tripled.
The limitations and global demand are reflected in the year’s cumulative figures, with export volumes dropping 23.3% year-on-year, while prices rose by 7.9%.
The preliminary data released today do not specify numbers by element — aggregating the total sales of rare earths — nor by country of destination.
Zichun Huang, an analyst at the British consultancy Capital Economics, explained that although tensions with the U.S. “remain a hindrance,” the slowdown in October was actually due to a decline in sales to other countries and currency appreciation, which affects Chinese competitiveness.
The specialist specifically points to Latin America, “perhaps due to Mexico’s efforts to curb the flow of Chinese imports,” but also to the two regional blocs dominating Beijing’s trading partners: the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the European Union.
Huang believes that the positive effect of the “recent trade ‘deal'” between Beijing and Washington will be limited, as the impact of tariffs was already declining, but also due to the appreciation of the yuan resulting from reduced tensions between the two powers.
