In a report titled Market Outlook 2025, Embraer has presented its annual forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the up-to-150-seat category over the next 20 years. The company anticipates a demand for 8,720 jets and 1,780 turboprops, with the market value of these aircraft expected to reach $680 billion (€586.3 billion).
The same report indicates that global passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), is projected to rise by 3.9% annually until 2044.
China is expected to experience a 5.7% growth rate in air traffic, followed by Latin America (4.7%), Africa (4.4%), the Middle East (4.4%), Asia-Pacific (4.1%), Europe (3.1%), and North America (2.4%).
“Today, as countries and regions seek greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access continues to grow. We believe that mixed fleets combining smaller and larger narrowbody aircraft [commercial airplanes with up to 200 seats] are essential for this long-term growth,” said Arjan Meijer, President and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation.
“Mixed fleets provide the necessary versatility to better match capacity to demand, expand air networks, and support national and regional development goals,” he added.
In another report focused on the potential to enhance air connectivity within the African continent, also released by Embraer in Zanzibar, Tanzania, the manufacturer highlighted that Africa’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to grow by 3.8% annually over the next 20 years, with a significant market potential for flights attributed to the development of regional connectivity.
According to the Brazilian aircraft manufacturer, currently, 64% of African regional markets are served with only seven flights a week or fewer, indicating a substantial opportunity to enhance connectivity.
Additionally, many African origin and destination (O&D) markets remain underserved or not served at all by direct flights, forcing some passengers to make connections at distant hubs located in Europe or the Middle East.
The Embraer report identified 45 regional routes in Africa that are currently not served by direct flights. These routes could support multiple weekly direct flights, thus contributing to regional economic growth, it noted.
“The top 10 routes could accommodate at least three direct flights per week using a 100-seat aircraft,” the company emphasized.
“This report, and the data behind it, highlight the significant potential for new routes and improved hub connectivity across Africa. By adopting the right aircraft and enhancing regional air travel, Africa can unlock new economic opportunities, improve overall travel experiences for millions of passengers, and unleash the continent’s economic potential,” concluded Stephan Hannemann, Vice President of Sales and Marketing and Head of Commercial Aviation at Embraer for Africa and the Middle East.
Embraer, a leading global manufacturer of commercial aircraft up to 150 seats, has over 100 customers worldwide and maintains industrial units, offices, service centers, and parts distribution centers in the Americas, Africa, Asia, and Europe.
In Portugal, Embraer is the majority shareholder of OGMA – Indústria Aeronáutica de Portugal in Alverca, holding 65% of the capital.
