The European Commission, in its autumn economic forecasts released today, indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the eurozone is expected to increase by 1.3% this year, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the spring projections published last May.
For 2026, a GDP growth of 1.2% is forecasted, representing a downward revision from the previously projected 1.4%.
“Economic growth has surpassed expectations in the first nine months of the year, with real GDP growth exceeding the annual expansion projected in the spring,” the institution contextualizes, noting that “continued growth in the third quarter demonstrates the resilience of the European economy and its ability to withstand unprecedented shocks.”
A similar trend is observed within the European Union (EU), as the European Commission predicts that the EU’s GDP will rise by 1.4% this year and next, compared to previous forecasts of 1.1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
“This better-than-expected performance initially resulted from an increase in exports ahead of anticipated tariff rises, but investment in equipment and intangible assets also exceeded expectations,” it explains.
The European Commission today updates its forecasts on the economic growth of the eurozone and the EU, which, like previous ones, remain marked by uncertainty due to the global context, despite commitments from Brussels and Washington for a trade understanding that alleviated tensions.
After pessimistic spring projections published last May, which were the first following U.S. announcements earlier this year of heavy tariffs on the EU, the European Commission now republishes the forecasts, stating that “the EU economy continues to generate moderate growth in a rapidly changing geopolitical and geoeconomic context, exacerbated by new internal challenges.”
“Since the spring forecast, the global trade landscape has continued to evolve, strongly influenced by changes in U.S. trade policy and the response measures of other countries. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain high, evidenced by the prolonged war of Russia against Ukraine and threats to other countries, while the October peace plan for Gaza offers a glimmer of hope for regional stability in the Middle East,” it enumerates.
On the negative side, Chinese export controls exert pressure mainly on the EU automotive and manufacturing sectors.
Brussels also points out that “the fiscal policy trajectories in the EU reflect increasing defense spending needs but are accompanied by internal political uncertainties in some member states.”
It calls for efforts towards the “acceleration of effective execution of their Recovery and Resilience Plans and the increased use of cohesion funds in 2027, especially in countries where investment heavily relies on EU support,” near the end of the Recovery and Resilience Mechanism scheduled for August 2026.
In today’s forecasts, the European Commission estimates the eurozone’s public debt at 88.8% of GDP this year, which will be 89.8% next year and 90.4% in 2027. In the EU, these figures are 82.8%, 83.8%, and 84.5%, respectively.
The deficit in the eurozone is projected to be 3.2% of GDP in 2025, 3.3% in 2026, and 3.4% in 2027. For the EU as a whole, it will be 3.3%, 3.4%, and 3.4%, respectively.
Regarding unemployment, the rate will hover around 6.3% in the eurozone this year, 6.2% next year, and 6.1% the following year, with percentages of 5.9%, 5.9%, and 5.8% in the EU, respectively.
The next forecasts, covering spring, will be released in May 2026.
