The EU’s summer 2025 short-term agricultural markets outlook report, released today by the European Commission, predicts a 10% drop in wine production compared to the five-year average, with an annual decrease of 5%, reaching a 20-year low (137 million hectoliters) in the 2024/2025 period.
This decline is attributed to a 25% reduction in France’s wine production, 11% in Germany, and 8% in Portugal, which is not offset by the 15% increase in Italy and 10% in Spain.
Olive oil production is significantly recovering, with a 37% increase by June leading to a decrease in prices.
Poultry production is expected to rise, driven by increasing demand, while milk deliveries remain stable, according to the Commission’s forecast.
Conversely, the production outlook shows a decreasing trend for sugar and ruminant meat, in addition to wine.
Food inflation in the EU remains above the general rate (3.1% versus 2.2% in May), though some stability and even deflation are noted in certain food categories.
Despite historically high levels, EU farmers have recently seen a stabilization in production costs.
The report anticipates falling oil prices, although tensions in the Middle East could impact this situation.
Geopolitical instabilities, climate-related challenges, and the evolving trade policies of key global players such as the United States and China pose threats to the stability of world and EU markets, warns Brussels.
