Polling results indicate a renewed confidence by voters in the political party of current Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, with support ranging between 29% and 34%, surpassing the outcomes of the last legislative elections held in March 2024, as reported by the Belgian newspaper Le Soir.
The Alliance for Democracy (AD) solidifies its backing in the nation though remains without an absolute majority, which suggests a new term marked by instability.
The British newspaper The Guardian highlighted the significant outcome for the far-right in these elections.
The piece mentions, “It will be a major result if Chega exceeds 20% as a final result, compared to 18% in the last legislative elections,” adding that “if projections are correct, Chega’s growth continues, albeit not as dramatically as in the last two elections,” when the party increased its seats from one to 12 in 2022 and from 12 to 50 in 2024.
According to the report, “Like Vox, its ideological counterpart across the border in Spain, the Portuguese party Chega has, in recent years, shattered the long-standing myth that the history of dictatorships in both neighboring countries insulated them against far-right politicians.”
The article notes that Chega has effectively tapped into a widespread dissatisfaction with the dominant left and right parties, during a period when the country grapples with a housing crisis, pressured healthcare and education systems, and low wages.
In Spain, El Pais headlines both perspectives, writing “The conservative coalition wins elections in Portugal and the far-right advances.”
The Spanish daily further reports that the Socialist Party might be surpassed by Chega, which shows a significant advance in these elections, hinting at what it describes as “a revolution” altering the party model existing since 1974 and, if confirmed, “certifies the definitive end of bipartisanship that has defined Portuguese politics since the Carnation Revolution of 1974.”
The piece adds that populism, which has been advancing in numerous countries, was slow to reach Portugal, but Sunday’s results demonstrated that Ventura’s party has managed to establish itself successfully nationwide in record time, having been founded only in 2019. However, the results “do not allow for envisioning stable governance solutions,” it observes.
Governability is the main focus of the European news website Politico.eu, highlighting that the center-right wins without a majority and foreseeing that if exit polls are verified, “the country’s parliament will remain fractured, with the far-right striving to finish in second place.”
Analyzing the elections, Politico notes that prior polls reflected voter frustration with early legislative elections and suggests that voters seem to have vented their frustration on the socialists while rewarding the ruling center-right and the far-right, which challenges the democratic ‘status quo’ of the country.
Pointing out how Montenegro has rejected any governmental agreement with Chega, the publication writes that “forming a minority government would require tacit support from the center-left,” mentioning the need for “constructive cooperation” from the Socialist Party in voting on the government program and State Budget. However, it stressed how relations between the AD and the Socialist Party leaders have deteriorated since the government’s confidence motion was rejected, making such support unlikely.
