During a parliamentary discussion regarding the Government’s Program, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento highlighted that last year, the AD Government “exceeded expectations” by achieving a surplus of 0.7%, “more than three times what the previous government had projected”.
For 2025, the Government maintains the “commitment to budget balance,” projecting a surplus of 0.3% of GDP, despite institutions monitoring Portuguese public finances predicting a return to budget deficits this year or next.
The Bank of Portugal forecasts a deficit of 0.1% of GDP this year and 1.3% the next, while the Public Finance Council points to a balanced budget in 2025 and a 1% deficit in 2026.
The European Commission anticipates that Portugal will achieve a budget surplus of 0.1% of GDP this year, turning into a 0.6% deficit in 2026.
Despite maintaining these estimates, the minister acknowledged that 2026 will be “a more demanding year financially, given that the full implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan in the loans component represents an expense”.
Miranda Sarmento also emphasized that the government estimates the public debt ratio will decrease to 91.5% of GDP, noting that “in 2025 or at the latest in 2026, Portugal will achieve a public debt level below the Eurozone average”.
The official admitted that international uncertainty “makes the fundamental assumption of budget balance even more critical, to protect Portugal from potential negative external shocks,” reiterating the Government’s commitment to maintaining this balance.
