In a statement, the Forum for Competitiveness reported an estimation suggesting that in the second quarter, the GDP shifted from a decline of 0.5% to a recovery between 0.2% and 0.5%, corresponding to a year-on-year change between 1.4% and 1.7%.
Last month, this forum predicted economic growth for this year at “values below 2%.”
The entity noted that the daily activity indicator, calculated by the Bank of Portugal, slowed down during the quarter and recorded negative values in all months of the second quarter.
However, the coincident indicator, also estimated by the central bank, showed values of 1.6% in April and May, slightly below the 1.7% recorded in the first quarter.
The economic climate, evaluated by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), also slowed in the first quarter, significantly less than the GDP, but improved marginally in the second quarter.
“We are thus facing a significant disparity in indicators for the concluded quarter, complicating estimates,” the Forum highlighted.
In recent months, the two main reasons for the deterioration of international prospects were tariffs and their uncertainty.
In recent weeks, risks have increased with the spread of the Middle East conflict to Iran and the direct, albeit limited, involvement of the United States, the entity emphasized.
The Forum for Competitiveness further noted that in the eurozone, the downward revision of inflation forecasts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could create room for more cuts earlier, but markets now only expect a rate cut in December.
