The Forum anticipates a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth recovery to between 1.6% and 2.2% by 2026, following an expected slowdown this year. This anticipated slowdown is attributed to exports being affected by worsening external conditions and a strong appreciation of the euro. The Forum estimates that new U.S. tariffs might reduce Portugal’s economic growth by 0.3% in both 2025 and 2026, significantly impacting sectors such as pharmaceuticals, oil, and cork.
Nevertheless, it is expected that exports “should recover next year, also helped by the clarification of tariffs.” For 2026, prospects appear more favorable, with the potential for the best growth year since 2023. Nationally, this could coincide with the emergence of early signs of structural reforms, which are anticipated to start enhancing the growth potential of the Portuguese economy.
In terms of price evolution, a national inflation slowdown is projected, decreasing from 2.4% in 2024 to between 1.8% and 2.1% in 2025, and further to between 1.6% and 2.0% in 2026.
Regarding the labor market, a relative stabilization of the unemployment rate is forecasted, from 6.4% in 2024 to between 6.3% and 6.6% in 2025, and between 6.2% and 6.6% in 2026.
