With nearly all votes counted from Sunday’s snap legislative elections, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is set to meet with parliamentary parties. Meetings are scheduled to commence on Tuesday with the PSD, PS, and Chega, followed by discussions with other parties in the days thereafter.
The President’s agenda kicks off with a meeting with the PSD at 11:00 AM on Tuesday, followed by the PS at 3:00 PM, and Chega at 5:00 PM. Marcelo plans to conduct at least one more round of talks with these top three parties to ensure the stability and governability of the forthcoming government.
These discussions are occurring ahead of the results from votes cast abroad, which will be announced on May 28. There are four parliamentary seats still undecided, potentially affecting the balance of power between the PS and Chega.
In last year’s snap legislative elections, Luís Montenegro was appointed as Prime Minister 11 days after election night. The government took office within two weeks, with the government program approved 31 days post-election. This time, the process of appointment might take longer due to the new political landscape in parliament, which could pose a challenge for Marcelo in achieving consensus for a stable government solution.
Nevertheless, the formation of the new government is expected to be completed by the end of June.
Meanwhile, the PS is in search of a new secretary-general after Pedro Nuno Santos’s resignation. The party’s National Committee will convene next Saturday, May 24, to outline the timeline for internal elections and possibly determine the PS’s stance on forming a government for the next legislature, which may involve supporting an AD government.
The new legislature will not have a two-thirds majority formed solely by PSD and PS or by AD (PSD/CDS-PP) and the PS, even if all four emigrant mandates are secured by these parties. The President has expressed willingness to delay the Prime Minister’s appointment to allow parties sufficient time to negotiate a government program that can pass in parliament.
Several scenarios are possible. If no motion to reject the government program is presented, similar to last year by the PCP, the initial phase should proceed smoothly, allowing Luís Montenegro to be appointed as Prime Minister.
If the PCP once again introduces a rejection motion, Chega’s role becomes crucial. While it is unlikely that André Ventura’s party would support such a motion, the decision has been deferred to the coming days. Despite Chega’s historic electoral success, the party has little to gain from obstructing governance, which could halt for a year.
A third possibility is that the PS and Chega could also support the government, as occurred last year. With the PS weakened and leaderless, it lacks the power to block an AD government, unless allied with Chega. However, this scenario appears improbable. Notably, last year, the PS abstained from the rejection motion proposed by the PCP, and Chega voted against it.
It’s worth noting that AD has more deputies than the entire Left combined.
The situation may become more complex with the approaching State Budget, which will again depend on Chega’s support or the PS lending a positive influence. This will present a fresh challenge for the Executive.
