Henrique Gouveia e Melo remains the favorite among Portuguese citizens for the position of President of the Republic in 2026, with a 26% vote intention, as revealed by an Aximage survey for TVI/CNN. However, if the elections were held today, no candidate would win in the first round, necessitating a second round to determine the next head of state.
The admiral is followed by Luís Marques Mendes with 19% and António José Seguro with 14% of intended votes. It is important to note that these results do not include the distribution of undecided voters.
In the current scenario, Henrique Gouveia e Melo would not win the elections in the first round, requiring the country to return to the polls for a second round where the admiral would emerge victorious.
In a potential subsequent round for the presidency, the survey indicates that the former Chief of Staff of the Navy continues to gather the preference of the majority of Portuguese citizens over his main opponents.
If Gouveia e Melo faces António José Seguro, the vote intention stands at 42% against 36%, respectively. If his opponent is Luís Marques Mendes, the admiral’s support is at 41% compared to 36%.
In a scenario involving Luís Marques Mendes and António José Seguro, the former PS leader leads with 37% of votes against 36%.
Two days ago, there was an “almost technical tie”
On Monday, Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo appeared in an “almost technical tie” with Luís Marques Mendes and António José Seguro in the latest Intercampus barometer for Correio da Manhã, CMTV, and Jornal de Negócios.
In fact, the former Navy Chief of Staff fell 6.7 percentage points compared to the June survey, where he garnered 27.3% of voting intentions. By July, 20.6% of respondents stated their intention to vote for Henrique Gouveia e Melo. It is worth noting that, in March, the admiral was favored by the population with 35.6% of vote intentions.
Similarly, Luís Marques Mendes experienced a decline from June to July, with a decrease of 1.3 percentage points in voting intentions. While 18.5% of Portuguese opted for him in June, only 17.2% would now support the social-democrat.
On the other hand, António José Seguro saw a significant increase from 11% in June to 16.5%, representing a rise of 5.5 percentage points. Negócios emphasized that the socialist experienced the highest surge in voting intentions in July, after having recorded less than 5% when he announced his candidacy for the presidency.
Given that the margin of error for this survey is 4%, the three candidates are within a tenth of a technical tie. This is the closest scenario observed since voting intention studies for the presidential elections began.
Despite remaining the favorite for the presidential elections among Portuguese citizens, Gouveia e Melo has ‘sunk’ in voting intentions, standing “almost in a technical tie” with Marques Mendes and Seguro. In a potential second round, several scenarios show technical ties as well.
