The government is confident in achieving an economic growth of 2% this year following the release of GDP data for the third quarter. In a statement, the Ministry of Finance emphasized the performance of the national economy:
“This performance reinforces confidence in the national economy and the government’s conviction that achieving a 2% growth this year, as included in the budget proposal for 2026, is possible,” the statement reads.
The government highlighted that the “Portuguese economy recorded a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.8%, exceeding the performance of previous quarters and expectations from most analysts.”
“This evolution reflects greater dynamism in domestic demand and represents the largest quarter-on-quarter growth since the beginning of 2023, excluding the last quarter of 2024. This growth in the Portuguese economy in the third quarter is the largest recorded among Eurozone countries that released quick estimates today,” the statement continues.
The government explained that, year-on-year, “the national economy grew by 2.4%, marking an acceleration from the first half of the year.”
“After the negative effects of international uncertainty, trade war, and geopolitical shocks, the Portuguese economy continues to demonstrate high resilience,” concludes the ministry.
Portuguese Economy Grows 2.4% in Q3, Exceeding Predictions
The Portuguese economy grew 2.4% year-on-year in the third quarter and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, according to the quick estimate released today by the National Statistics Institute (INE).
The GDP, in volume, recorded a year-on-year variation of 2.4% in the third quarter of 2025, following a 1.8% increase in the previous quarter, according to INE.
Quarter-on-quarter, GDP increased 0.8% in volume, after a growth of 0.7% in the previous quarter.
These figures represent an acceleration of economic activity both year-on-year and quarterly, exceeding expectations from economists consulted by Lusa, who anticipated a quarterly slowdown to between 0.3% and 0.6%.
According to INE, year-on-year growth benefited from a less pronounced negative contribution from net external demand, “reflecting the acceleration of exports of goods and services and a slight deceleration of imports of goods and services.”
On the other hand, the positive contribution of domestic demand to the year-on-year GDP variation “remained close to that observed in the previous quarter, with an acceleration of private consumption and a deceleration of investment.”
Regarding quarter-on-quarter variation, domestic demand provided a greater boost with the acceleration of private consumption, while “the contribution of net external demand was more negative, as the acceleration of imports of goods and services was more pronounced than that of exports of goods and services.”
This is a 30-day quick estimate, with more detailed results on the evolution of the Quarterly National Accounts to be released on November 30.
Forecasts
For the entire year, the government forecasts a GDP growth of 2%, according to estimates included in the budget for 2026. Meanwhile, the Bank of Portugal, Public Finance Council, IMF, and OECD estimate a growth of 1.9% this year, while the European Commission projects GDP growth of 1.8%.
