The study ‘Air Travel Demand Outlook 2025: Steady Growth Despite Supply Constraints’ outlines three potential scenarios for the evolution of air travel demand this year: the base scenario, the pessimistic scenario, and the optimistic scenario, with the latter predicting a growth of up to 10.2%.
“The air travel sector grew by 6.5% globally in 2024, driven by a 20% decrease in fuel prices that reduced ticket costs and increased demand,” according to a statement.
Despite the growth recorded in 2024, airlines face various challenges, including delays in aircraft deliveries and workers’ demands for wage increases.
The base scenario, considered the most likely by BCG, anticipates air travel demand to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6%, aligning with the global and regional GDP growth forecasts and consistent with the growth seen in 2024.
The pessimistic scenario predicts a 1.6% slowdown in demand due to rising fuel prices and labor costs, influenced by prolonged tensions and global economic uncertainty.
For the optimistic scenario, it forecasts a 10.2% increase in demand driven by accelerated economic growth and lowered fuel prices, as well as easing international geopolitical tensions.
The study further indicates that in all scenarios, supply chain challenges will continue to affect air carriers, notably bottlenecks in producing essential parts like airfoils, impacting maintenance, capacity, costs, and travel prices.
Regarding investment, BCG expects airlines to increase investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) by 35% per year until 2030, reaching approximately 10 billion dollars (8.63 billion euros).
The study also reveals that some companies have already implemented this technology “to facilitate the boarding process and more accurately predict flight demand, capitalizing on it and ensuring competitive advantages”.
