Tariffs on aluminum and steel are set to impact exports worth approximately 26 billion euros, accounting for about 5% of the European Union’s total exports to the United States, according to a credit insurance company. They further report that metal production is expected to decline by 1.5% this year.
A study by Crédito y Caución projects a slowdown in all subsectors of the global metallurgical and steel industry over the next two years, with a growth of 2.2% this year and 0.7% next year.
The main market affected is Canada, the largest foreign supplier of steel to the U.S. market, which in 2024 sent 87% of its steel exports to its neighbor.
Conversely, the economies of emerging markets are expected to drive the growth in supply.
The insurance company’s study indicates that “India will register one of the highest global growth rates in the production of basic metals, with 6.1% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026,” attributing this rise to economic and demographic growth.
China is expected to maintain its production levels over the next decade. Despite its low exposure to the U.S. market (representing only 1.8% of its steel exports), the Asian giant faces other challenges, “such as the decline in construction and the industry’s excess capacity which will lead to overproduction.”
Another challenge for the sector highlighted by the study is the transition to greener production methods, which “requires significant investments that not all companies are able to make.”
