The Intergenerational Justice Index (IJI) has decreased from 0.50 in 2021 to 0.43 in 2023 on a scale from zero to one, according to a report by the Institute of Public Policy, supported by the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation.
“The main difference [compared to the previous study] is that while there was an improvement in intergenerational justice until 2020, the index worsens from 2020 to 2023,” said the work coordinator, Paulo Trigo Pereira.
The data analysis, aimed at contributing to improved public policies, covers six areas: environment, health, labor market, housing, living conditions, and public finances.
According to the coordinator, the dimensions of health and housing have “significantly deteriorated.”
The housing indicator, which stood at 0.46 in 2019, was calculated at 0.23 in 2023. An approach to unity (1) indicates more intergenerational justice. The closer to zero, the less justice for “young and future generations,” explained Paulo Trigo Pereira.
To evaluate the housing situation, experts considered factors like the effort to access a house, expenses overload, autonomy, and housing conditions.
Paulo Trigo Pereira highlighted that Portugal is among the countries with the highest percentage of young people up to 35 years living with their parents. “This has been increasing, and this indicator is one of those responsible for the decline in the housing index. Another factor is accessibility,” he added, referring to the price-to-income ratio.
“I believe there is a certain failure in housing policies,” lamented Paulo Trigo Pereira.
When questioned, the economist noted that the policies of previous and current governments have not adequately addressed the problem. “They do not understand the severity, from an intergenerational perspective, of the housing issue,” he emphasized.
In Paulo Trigo Pereira’s view, addressing one of “the biggest problems in Portuguese society” requires coordination across various areas to increase supply, end the Golden Visa program inflating the speculative market, “strongly restrict” short-term rentals in dominant areas, and intensify the long-term rental market.
For Paulo Trigo Pereira, the housing problem cannot be solved by building 50,000 or 70,000 houses.
“Increasing supply alone is not enough. There should be a coherent set of measures all pointing in the same direction, rather than in opposite directions, which is currently happening,” stated the university professor who coordinated the study.
“Since 2016, accessibility has deteriorated,” he observed.
In the health sector, he also advocated for policies to improve the situation, such as more investment in prevention, a long-term evaluation of policy effects, and better access assurance.
“Access to healthcare is degrading,” he warned.
The report, titled “What Future Are We Leaving for the Next Generations?”, highlights that Portugal is facing “a structural setback in intergenerational equity.
In health, two factors explain the index drop from 0.57 in 2021 to 0.35 in 2023: access to healthcare (depending on household spending and unmet needs) with negative evolution during this period, and the health system’s spending direction, which has “significantly decreased” in prevention.
Reporters also noted an increase in the consumption of anxiolytics and antidepressants, indicating “a deterioration in the physical and psychological well-being of the younger generations.”
The project “An Intergenerational Justice Index for Portugal” was launched in 2023, with the publication of the first study.
“While the previous report, with data up to 2020, showed a trend towards improvement in intergenerational justice in Portugal, in recent years, particularly in 2022 and 2023, the trend is reversing,” the newly released document reads.
In a report of about 70 pages with several recommendations, the authors warn that Social Security liabilities have been increasing since 2016, “reinforcing prospects of a significant decline in the living standards of generations retiring between 2060 and 2070.”
