The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global oil supply increase of approximately 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, marking a rise of about 100,000 barrels per day each year.
In 2026, the IEA anticipates the total oil supply to exceed total demand by 4.09 million barrels per day, compared to a previous surplus of 3.97 million barrels per day projected in an earlier monthly report.
“The balance of the global oil market is shifting increasingly out of equilibrium as global oil supply advances while oil demand growth remains modest compared to historical standards,” the IEA states in the report.
The agency predicts that the growth in 2025 will be driven by the United States, China, and Nigeria.
The IEA notes that although the ongoing recovery of global oil supply stalled in October, there has been a significant increase of 6.2 million barrels per day since January, with this growth evenly distributed between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ countries.
Unplanned outages, scheduled maintenance, and ongoing disruptions in refining and commercial operations in Russia have driven refinery margins to their highest level in two years in Europe and Asia in early November, the IEA added.
The organization also expects global refinery production, which decreased in October, to increase substantially by the end of the year.
