Two months ahead of the presidential elections, André Ventura and Gouveia e Melo are leading in the preferences of the Portuguese populace. This indicates that if the elections were held today, there would be a second round involving these two candidates.
This is according to a poll conducted by ISCTE and the ICS (Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon) for Expresso and SIC, which places Luís Marques Mendes in third place.
André Ventura and Gouveia e Melo each have 18% of the voting intentions, while Marques Mendes closely follows with 16%.
In fourth place is the candidate backed by the Socialist Party (PS), António José Seguro, with 10% of the votes.
Next is João Cotrim Figueiredo with 3%, António Filipe with 2%, and Catarina Martins with 1%. Jorge Pinto, the candidate supported by Livre, has less than 1% in the voting intentions.
What about the undecided voters?
The study also reveals that 8% of the respondents intend to abstain, while 22% remain undecided.
When redistributing the undecided votes, the poll suggests that Gouveia e Melo would take the lead with 26% of the voting intentions, against 25% for the Chega leader.
The ISCTE poll
The poll conducted for SIC and Expresso was based on fieldwork conducted between November 7 and November 17, 2025.
The survey was carried out before the start of the televised debates with the presidential candidates, so it does not reflect any impact these might have had on the respondents’ opinions.
The elections to elect the successor of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa at the Belém Palace are scheduled for January 18, 2026.
