The International Labour Organization (ILO) announced a revised global economic outlook, indicating a reduction equivalent to approximately seven million fewer additional jobs. This adjustment reflects a global GDP growth forecast of 2.8%, down from the previous projection of 3.2%.
These figures were released today in the updated World Employment and Social Outlook, following the April projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), estimating a decrease in global employment growth from 1.7% to 1.5%.
The ILO noted that around 84 million jobs in 71 countries are linked directly or indirectly to U.S. consumer demand, with risks to these workers increasing amid escalating U.S. trade tensions.
While the majority of these jobs are concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region (56 million), Canada and Mexico face the highest percentage of employment exposed to potential trade tensions, at 17.1%.
The report also highlighted concerning trends in income distribution.
The share of labor income in total GDP has fallen globally from 53.0% in 2014 to 52.4% in 2024, with significant decreases in Africa and the Americas, according to the ILO.
If this proportion had remained stable, global labor income would be a trillion dollars higher in 2024 (885 billion euros at current exchange rates), potentially translating to an additional 290 dollars (257 euros) per worker in constant purchasing power terms.
This global erosion of labor income share exerts upward pressure on inequality and reveals a decoupling between economic growth and worker compensation, the ILO document stated.
In the statement, ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo warned that if geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions persist, they will undoubtedly impact labor markets worldwide, as the global economy is growing more slowly than anticipated.
“We can make a difference by strengthening social protection, investing in skills development, promoting social dialogue, and creating inclusive labor markets to ensure technological change benefits everyone,” he added.
