The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, released today, estimates that Portugal will achieve a budget surplus of 0.2% this year and a balance of 0.0% by 2026. In contrast, the government’s proposed state budget for 2026 anticipates surpluses of 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.
The IMF stands out among institutions monitoring the Portuguese economy, as recent forecasts from the European Commission, the Bank of Portugal, the OECD, and the Public Finance Council all predict a deficit in 2026, primarily due to the impact of loans planned under the Recovery and Resilience Plan.
However, the IMF presents projections extending until the end of the decade, under a scenario where policies remain unchanged, and forecasts negative budget balances from 2027 to 2030: -0.2% in 2027, -0.5% in 2028, -0.7% in 2029, and -0.9% in 2030.
The institution notes that “projections for the current year are based on the budget approved by the authorities, adjusted to reflect the IMF team’s macroeconomic forecast.”
Future projections are made “under the assumption of unchanged policies,” while “projections for 2025 reflect the information available in the 2025 budget proposal.”
The IMF also provides forecasts for public debt, estimating that the debt-to-GDP ratio will decrease to 90.9% in 2025 and 86.9% in 2026. The 2026 state budget proposal estimates a reduction of the public debt ratio to 90.2% of GDP in 2025 and 87.8% in 2026.
