The anticipated outcomes are detailed in the Documento de Finanças Públicas, marking the first text featuring macroeconomic forecasts for forthcoming years, previously known as the Documento de Economia e Finanças (DEF). This report emerges amidst a “very complex” scenario for both short-term and long-term forecasting.
“This Documento de Finanças Públicas appears in a very complex global economic context, which makes long-term and short-term forecasts highly complicated and challenging,” acknowledged Giorgetti during a press conference following the Council of Ministers.
Nevertheless, the government led by Giorgia Meloni projects that the GDP of the eurozone’s third-largest economy will grow by 0.6% in 2025, a reduction from the 1.2% predicted in October. For 2026 and 2027, GDP growth is expected to be 0.8% each year.
Regarding the deficit, it is projected to be 3.3% in 2025, subsequently dropping below the 3% threshold required by the European Stability Pact: 2.8% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.
Italy’s public debt aligns with previous forecasts, standing at 136.6% of GDP in 2025, 137.6% in 2026, and 137.4% in 2027, attributed to the cessation of the contentious “Superbonus” incentive program.
Concerning the increase in defense expenditure demanded by NATO allies, including the United States, Giorgetti affirmed that Italy meets the 2% spending goal.
“Currently, defense expenditures maintain the original direction and development, and we believe, based on our accounting criteria, which will eventually be discussed within NATO, that we comply with the 2% request,” he stated.
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