Social democrat Luís Marques Mendes is the preferred candidate among the Portuguese public to succeed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the upcoming presidential elections, set for January 18. However, he is in a technical tie with Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo.
The latest survey by Pitagórica for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF, JN, and O JOGO, released on Monday, shows Marques Mendes with 22.6% of voting intentions (including undecided voters), while Gouveia e Melo has 21.1%, marking a technical tie.
In third place, also in a technical tie due to a margin of error of about 3 percentage points, is António José Seguro with 17.4%, followed by André Ventura with 14.7%.
Liberal João Cotrim Figueiredo ranks fifth with 12.6% of voting intentions, showing the most significant rise since October (3.5 percentage points).
Below 10% are Catarina Martins (4.4%), António Filipe (2.5%), and Jorge Pinto (1.4%).
What would happen in a second round?
In a second-round scenario, Luís Marques Mendes would win in all scenarios but would be in a technical tie against António José Seguro (44% vs 40%).
Against Gouveia e Melo, he would secure 46% of the vote compared to 39%.
In a matchup with André Ventura, the victory would be more pronounced at 70% to 19%. The leader of Chega is defeated in all simulated contests.
The presidential elections are scheduled for January 18. Official candidates include António Filipe (supported by PCP), António José Seguro (backed by PS), André Ventura (supported by Chega), Catarina Martins (supported by BE), Henrique Gouveia e Melo, João Cotrim Figueiredo (supported by Iniciativa Liberal), Jorge Pinto (supported by Livre), and Luís Marques Mendes (supported by PSD).
According to the candidacy portal of the Ministry of Internal Administration, there are 31 additional citizens collecting signatures to launch a presidential bid.
