During discussions with Lusa in Washington, coinciding with the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, the minister acknowledged substantial uncertainty regarding global economic growth and its future trajectory. However, he asserted that the government’s budgetary plan aligns with maintaining a balance in public finances.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Portugal’s GDP growth forecast for this year to 2%, down from the 2.3% predicted in October and also below the government’s expectations.
In the State Budget proposal for 2025, the government anticipates a GDP growth of 2.1%.
For 2026, the IMF projects a national GDP growth of 1.7%.
“In terms of economic growth, the government projected a 2.1% growth in the State Budget for 2025. The IMF projects 2%. Therefore, the difference is not significant,” stated the minister.
“The notable point is the IMF’s fiscal predictions. Our 2025 budget forecasts a fiscal surplus of 0.3%. The IMF estimates a surplus of 0.5% this year and 0.1% in 2026. This indicates that the government’s fiscal policy has been addressing the needs of public services, low-income earners, including pensioners, while reducing taxes and maintaining fiscal balance,” he added.
Joaquim Miranda Sarmento emphasized that these IMF forecasts demonstrate the governance model where enhancing public services, public administration careers, reducing taxes, and increasing social support is feasible alongside maintaining balanced public accounts, small budget surpluses, and steadily reducing public debt.
Regarding Portugal, the IMF presented inflation forecasts, predicting consumer prices will decrease to 1.9% in 2025 before rising slightly to 2.1% in 2026.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable, with the IMF projecting a rate of 6.4% for this year and 6.3% in 2026.
Despite this, the national economy is growing at a rate above that predicted for the Eurozone, estimated at 0.8% for this year, while the IMF projects stagnation for Germany at 0%.
