Pressure on prices and demographic changes are shaping consumer spending patterns in Portugal, with customers being more rational with their budgets in response to rising inflation, according to an analysis by Worldpanel by Numerator, released in partnership with Centromarca – Associação Portuguesa de Empresas de Produtos de Marca.
“In a scenario of returning inflationary pressure, the Portuguese consumer is responding with remarkable rationality in managing their budget, becoming more selective, less loyal to stores, and effective in seeking promotions,” states a communiqué about the study accessed by Notícias ao Minuto.
Additionally, the “study reveals a clear tension in the market: while prices of consumer goods accelerated again in mid-2025, the willingness of consumers to absorb these increases has dramatically decreased.”
“Evidence of this is that only 31% of categories that increased in price in 2025 managed to grow in volume, a figure well below the 46% recorded in 2023,” the report notes.
“More visits, but with smaller baskets”
The result? “This price sensitivity fuels a more pragmatic and fragmented shopping behavior.”
“Loyalty to a single brand is declining, with Portuguese consumers visiting an average of five different stores per year. The shopping routine has changed: more visits, but with smaller baskets, indicating more rigorous household budget management. In this context, promotions become a key tool: 1 in 4 categories that increased sales in promotion managed to gain value, a ratio of efficiency higher than in 2023 (1 in 5),” the communiqué states.
This reshaping of purchasing behavior has a direct impact on the dynamics between Manufacturer Brands (MDF) and Private Labels (MDD): “Although MDDs continue to hold a significant market share, reaching 48.1% in value, their growth has slowed. This slowdown suggests that, in their search for value, consumers do not simply choose the lowest price option. The decision is more complex, considering the quality, innovation, and trust associated with Manufacturer Brands, which maintain leadership with 51.9% of the market.”
The study also reveals that “at the base of these behavioral changes are profound demographic transformations reshaping the national consumer profile.”
“On one hand, there is a consolidation of an older population with smaller households—households over 50 years old already represent 68% of the total, and one to two-person households make up almost 60% of the universe—creating new needs for convenience and product formats,” the report states.
On the other hand, “immigration is established as the main driver of population growth, introducing greater cultural diversity and new consumption patterns. This dual reality results in a less homogeneous and more complex market, challenging brands to develop flexible and segmented offerings.”
