According to the latest 2024 report from NATO’s Secretary-General, detailing the expenditures of the 32 member states of the Atlantic Alliance, Portugal invested approximately 4.147 billion euros in defense last year, corresponding to 1.46% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
NATO’s estimates, published in April this year, rank Portugal as the sixth lowest spender on defense within the alliance that year, ahead of only Canada (1.45%), Slovenia (1.37%), Luxembourg (1.30%), Belgium (1.29%), and Spain (1.24%).
On the eve of the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, set to take place on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Portuguese government has already committed to reaching 2% of GDP this year.
Approximately a month after this report from the NATO Secretary-General was published, the Ministry of National Defense indicated that “even with an upward revision in the growth of the national economy” the execution for 2024 should conclude at 1.58% of GDP, equivalent to 4.481,50 million euros — slightly above the Alliance’s figure.
Considering this amount and the Bank of Portugal’s GDP projections for 2025, Portugal will need to invest approximately 1.3 billion more than currently to reach the 2% target.
Analyzing the Atlantic Alliance’s report, of the approximately four billion euros Portugal allocated to defense in 2024, a large portion (58.6%) is dedicated to personnel expenses, which in NATO’s calculations include spending on military and civilian personnel in the Armed Forces, as well as pensions.
Over the past ten years, according to the document, personnel expenses in Portugal consistently represented the majority of spending, reaching nearly 82% in 2015, although they have gradually decreased until today.
This trend is also evident in the State budgets, especially this year, which predict 1.314,5 million euros for this category, corresponding to 42.9% of the total consolidated expenditure allocation.
Following personnel expenses is the category of “equipment” (19.5%). NATO includes in this calculation spending on equipment as well as research in this area.
Evaluating Portugal’s data over the last ten years, the equipment category started at 8.43% in 2014 and followed an upward trajectory, although it never exceeded 20% (a commitment established at the 2014 Wales summit, which also set the 2% GDP target, which the Portuguese government aims to achieve this year).
In third place (17.9%) is the category of “operations, maintenance, and other expenses,” followed lastly by infrastructure costs (3.9%).
The amount of Portuguese investment in military infrastructure was always low: from 2014 to 2020, it did not reach 1% of the total. In 2021, there was a jump to 4.48%, but the following year it fell back to 2%.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has announced that he will propose that allies increase defense spending to 5% of GDP: 3.5% for “pure” defense expenditure (Armed Forces, equipment, and training) and 1.5% of annual GDP in investments related to defense and security, such as infrastructure and industry.
Spain criticized the 5% target, even rejecting it, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico alluded to a possible exit from NATO, stating that “neutrality would be beneficial for Slovakia” and calling the proposal demanded by Donald Trump “irrational.”
In Portugal, the figure also raised concerns among the two largest opposition parties, Chega and PS.
