Data from various macroeconomic indicators indicate that Mozambique is projected to experience a public debt equivalent to 101.1% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year. This figure is expected to rise to 104.2% in 2026 and 104.7% in 2027, before decreasing below 100% in 2029, settling at approximately 95.6%. This mirrors the debt ratio from last year, which was recorded at 96.6% of the GDP.
The report does not further address Lusophone African countries. However, during the press conference for the document’s release this afternoon, attended by the director of the Fiscal Affairs Department and former Finance Minister of Portugal, Vítor Gaspar, questions specific to the African continent were deferred to Friday. On that day, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to release its report on Sub-Saharan Africa as part of the Spring Meetings taking place in Washington this week.
A closer look at the presented data shows that the IMF projects a GDP growth of 2.4% for Angola, a significant decline from the 4.5% growth last year, and slightly higher than the 2.1% forecasted for 2026.
Equatorial Guinea is anticipated to face a more severe downward trend, with an economic recession of 4.2% this year. The expectations for next year indicate stagnation, following a 1.9% growth in 2024, a recent high for the Lusophone nation.
The IMF estimates that the average public debt in Sub-Saharan Africa will be 55.4% this year and 53.3% in 2026, down from the 56.1% recorded last year.
Overall, for the African continent, the IMF has downgraded its growth forecast by three-tenths to 3.9% this year, attributing this revision to “sudden changes in global outlook,” which have disrupted growth momentum.
“Despite some resilience in African growth against multiple shocks, sudden changes in global outlook have interrupted growth momentum,” reads a statement released after a meeting between IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and the Group of African Governors, led by the Minister of Finance and Budget of the Central African Republic, Hervé Ndoba.
“Decisive policy actions to lower inflation, stabilize public debt, and reduce external imbalances risk being undone by future shocks,” they assert, highlighting that “risks to outlooks are high in a context of great uncertainty” where “fragile and conflict-affected states face particularly severe challenges.”
The IMF’s leader and the representative of 12 African countries express determination to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability while achieving economic development goals. They emphasize that “domestic reform efforts must promote fiscal sustainability, especially through the mobilization of domestic revenue and improved expenditure efficiency.”
On Tuesday, the IMF revised its global economic growth forecasts downward to 2.8% this year, a decrease from the 3.3% projected in January. For 2026, the IMF expects growth of 3%, down from the 3.3% previously forecasted in January.
“The rapid escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of political uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity,” argues the IMF in the World Economic Outlook report, released as part of the Annual Meetings of the World Bank and IMF taking place this week in Washington.
